Oil's $50 Hangover
Brent hit an all-time high of $144/bbl — then a ceasefire dropped and oil fell 17% to $91 in 48 hours. Five weeks of war premium, gone before
The Pros Call for Lower Oil
Crude oil futures are in the deepest contango ever recorded — front month priced well below 12 month out.
Source: Bloomberg
Retail
The bond market is repricing what can’t be disrupted. Software credit spreads have widened 250+ basis points YTD. Meanwhile, infrastructure (PAVE) is up 35% over |
The Futures Market Is Calling Oil’s Bluff
WTI futures curve has flipped back to contango — the market is pricing the war premium as temporary. Right call if the
Waiting for the wash out
The current selloff is already 42 days old — 8 days longer than 2025's worst drawdown — yet has produced barely half the % decline
History in Both Directions
The NYSE recorded its heaviest down volume ever on Monday, followed by its heaviest up volume ever on Tuesday — two historic extremes
Strait Jacket
$100 Oil on the Clock
WTI crude has surged 35%+ since the Iran war began — the oil scenario matrix now has three lanes: resolution, standoff, and
Corporate insiders in the Industrials sector are buying at the fastest pace in 15 years. What do they know? The 20-week insider accumulation indicator for XLI |
Panic without movement
S&P 500 implied vol (VIX at 27) needs 2% daily moves to justify — but 10-day realized vol is floating around 10–11. The spread between
Strait to Hell
Oil Calls Gone Wild
WTI implied volatility surged to the highest since 2020, and second-month call skews are the most bullish in data going back to
The defensive rotation may have missed a sector. Staples are up 10% this year as investors reach for safety. Healthcare — equally non-cyclical, equally essential |
