Oil's $50 Hangover
Brent hit an all-time high of $144/bbl — then a ceasefire dropped and oil fell 17% to $91 in 48 hours. Five weeks of war premium, gone before
The Pros Call for Lower Oil
Crude oil futures are in the deepest contango ever recorded — front month priced well below 12 month out.
Source: Bloomberg
Retail
The bond market is repricing what can’t be disrupted. Software credit spreads have widened 250+ basis points YTD. Meanwhile, infrastructure (PAVE) is up 35% over |
The Futures Market Is Calling Oil’s Bluff
WTI futures curve has flipped back to contango — the market is pricing the war premium as temporary. Right call if the
History in Both Directions
The NYSE recorded its heaviest down volume ever on Monday, followed by its heaviest up volume ever on Tuesday — two historic extremes
Strait Jacket
$100 Oil on the Clock
WTI crude has surged 35%+ since the Iran war began — the oil scenario matrix now has three lanes: resolution, standoff, and
Corporate insiders in the Industrials sector are buying at the fastest pace in 15 years. What do they know? The 20-week insider accumulation indicator for XLI |
Panic without movement
S&P 500 implied vol (VIX at 27) needs 2% daily moves to justify — but 10-day realized vol is floating around 10–11. The spread between
Strait to Hell
Oil Calls Gone Wild
WTI implied volatility surged to the highest since 2020, and second-month call skews are the most bullish in data going back to
The defensive rotation may have missed a sector. Staples are up 10% this year as investors reach for safety. Healthcare — equally non-cyclical, equally essential |
The Loan Ranger
Blue Owl Down
Alternative asset managers are getting destroyed: Blue Owl -52%, Ares -28%, Blackstone -22%, Apollo -19% over the past year. Only
