Volatility Pulse - Turn those machines back on

Vinay Tolia |

Twenty-Three Trillion Printed

The US money supply has exploded to a record $23 trillion — a near-vertical climb since 2020. There has never been this much money sloshing around.

Twenty-Three Trillion Printed

Source: Charlie Bilello


Crazy Money

One place the money is going...US Equities

Investors funneled a record $884 billion into US stocks over the past year — more than double any normal year, and a near-vertical spike off the chart. Everyone bought the top.

One place the money is going...US Equities

Source: Yardeni Research


What's A Dollar Worth?

Three Cents On The Dollar

A dollar from 1915 buys about three cents' worth of goods today — the US dollar has quietly lost 97% of its purchasing power in a century.

Three Cents On The Dollar

Source: Finaeon


Crazy Money

Owning assets has been the only way out (for those who own them)

Since the financial crisis, the richest 0.1% of US households have grown their share of the nation's wealth by nearly 40%, while the bottom 90% lost ground. The gap has never been wider.

Owning assets has been the only way out (for those who own them)

Source: Federal Reserve


US AI spend towers over China

The big cloud companies will spend $764 billion on AI this year and over $1 trillion by 2027 — roughly eight times what all of China's tech giants spend combined.

US AI spend towers over China

Source: Goldman Sachs


Leverage Everywhere

Well, That Escalated Quickly

The biggest 3x-leveraged Nasdaq fund has ballooned to $40 billion, and the 3x semiconductor fund nearly caught it in months. Retail is making the most amplified bet on tech ever.

Well, That Escalated Quickly

Source: Financial Times


The Unwind

$2.3 Trillion Of Crypto, Gone

The total crypto market has lost $2.3 trillion since October — more than half its value in eight months — with Bitcoin slipping back below $60,000.

$2.3 Trillion Of Crypto, Gone

Source: The Kobeissi Letter


Famous Last Words

"No one has ever lost money buying Bitcoin" — posted to 2.6 million views last year by the man whose company now sits on roughly $13 billion of unrealized Bitcoin losses.

Famous Last Words

Source: Michael Saylor (X)


Even Gold Cracked

Even Gold Broke

Gold tumbled below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since November, down nearly $900 from its peak. The safe haven stopped being safe.

Even Gold Broke

Source: The Kobeissi Letter


Cool & Unsung

Small Caps Quietly Lead

Small-cap stocks just hit a 52-week high relative to large-caps — the long-ignored corner of the market leading for once.

Small Caps Quietly Lead

Source: All Star Charts


US markets are actually balanced

Everyone worries the top 10 US stocks are 40% of the market. But that is actually among the LEAST concentrated of any major country's index — most of the world is far more top-heavy.

US markets are actually balanced

Source: Goldman Sachs


Just Because...

Your Stomach Lining Replaces Itself Every 4 Days

The cells lining your stomach are replaced every 4-5 days to prevent the stomach from digesting itself. Gastric acid at pH 1-2 is corrosive enough to dissolve metal — the only reason your stomach exists is that it's constantly building a new protective mucus layer. Without this mechanism, your stomach would eat itself in roughly a week.

Your Stomach Lining Replaces Itself Every 4 Days

Verify this fact