Volatility Pulse - Rage Buying
Call buying Mania
The 5-day moving average of the call/put volume ratio hit an 11-month high last week — 95th percentile since 2010. Net call volume went further: a perfect 100th percentile reading. Markets don't get more one-directional than this.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Can't get enough Mega Caps
Mega-cap call options volume hit a 2-year high ahead of earnings week — the largest names in the market are seeing the biggest speculative inflows in two years.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Every Scenario Has a Buyer
Hedge Funds All-In on Tech — Five-Year High
Global TMT (Info Tech + Communication Services) gross and net exposure at hedge funds hit 5-year highs last week — all-in on the AI trade before the most consequential tech earnings week in years.
Source: Goldman Sachs
VIXEQ Didn't Get the Memo
Crash Insurance on Tech Officially Canceled
Short-dated NDX put skew has fallen sharply — downside protection being unwound, upside demand now dominant ahead of earnings. Not just at the index level: single-stock hedges are also coming off. Everyone's positioned for the rip.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Semis Hit All-Time High
SOXX closed at a new all-time high of $431.77 — up 39% from its recent low. The semiconductor ETF isn't just recovering; it's leading. This is the only market-cap segment that has fully left the correction behind.
Source: Bloomberg
The Two-Sector Monopoly
Two Sectors, 70% of the Rally
SPX breadth is at its lowest since mid-2023: Information Technology and Communication Services drove 856bps of the 1,200bps S&P 500 rebound since late March. The other nine sectors are essentially passengers.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Half the S&P Is Now Called AI
The weight of AI companies in the S&P 500 is approaching 45% — up from roughly 30% just three years ago. When half the index reports the same theme, "diversified exposure" needs a new definition.
Source: @connorjbates_
Tech: Best Earnings, Cheapest PEG
While Technology is the single biggest driver of S&P 500 EPS growth, it's also the sector lagging its own earnings story by the most — trading at a steep PEG discount relative to all other sectors. Growing fastest, rewarded least.
Source: Duality Research
April Highs Never Peak Before December
When the S&P 500 makes 3 or more new highs in April, it has never peaked before December since 1986 — and closed positive 100% of the time. Small sample, strong precedent.
Source: @bluekurtic
Every Scenario Has a Buyer
Tax Refunds $50B Ahead of Last Year
2026 tax refunds are running $50 billion ahead of 2025's pace — and that extra cash is heading straight to brokerage accounts as retail buying picks up post-tax day. Fiscal stimulus is doing the Fed's job.
Source: Bloomberg
SPX at 6.5% Above 20DMA — March 2000 Vibes
The S&P 500 entered the week 6.51% above its 20-day moving average while within 1% of all-time highs — the most stretched it's been from its short-term average in that scenario since March 2000. Not a sell signal. A note of caution.
Source: Thrasher Analytics
The Alts Are Back in the Building
Nuclear +110% in a Year, Nobody Noticed
Goldman Sachs thematic baskets: Nuclear stocks +110% YoY; Bitcoin-sensitive stocks +155% YoY. The niche themes have outperformed everything in the S&P 500 by a wide margin — and they're not on most advisors' radars.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Just Because...
Crows Remember Every Face That Wronged Them
Crows can recognize and remember individual human faces for years — and hold grudges. Researchers who wore specific masks while trapping crows were dive-bombed for years afterward, by both the original crows AND their offspring, who were taught to hate the mask. Don't cross a crow.
