Volatility Pulse - So DRAMatic
Semi trucked
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is now more than 50% above its 200-day moving average — the first time it's done that in 26 years. The last time SOX did this, the year was 2000.
Source: Bloomberg
Semi Sales Hit $1.24 Trillion
Taiwan exports just went parabolic. World semiconductor sales are running at a $1.24 trillion annualized pace. The AI capex isn't a bubble — it's a supply chain everyone is racing to lock down.
Source: Bloomberg
Semis Did A Four-Sigma
Semis are up +152.6% over the last year — a record going back to 2001 and a four standard-deviation move. Six prior periods saw a SOX-vs-SPX gap above 40 percentage points. None ended quietly.
Source: Bloomberg
Follow The Bottlenecks
Training era → agentic era. Each transition creates a new bottleneck — and a new place to put capital. The chart of the week from one of the largest tech investors in the world says: stop watching the stocks, watch the constraints.
Source: Coatue
so DRAMatic
MCHP Calls Up 2,283 Percent
Microchip call volume ran 2,283% above its 20-day average on Friday. Top of the call volume screener was all semis and ETFs — MCHP, DRAM, MU, RKLB, INTC. The reach for upside isn't subtle.
Source: Bloomberg
The Roaring 2026
Rallies, Not Selloffs
Up-day realized vol is now running higher than down-day realized vol on the Nasdaq. The violent moves are increasingly happening in the form of rallies. The pain trade has been up — and the tape isn't done yet.
Source: Bloomberg
27.7% Earnings Growth
With 89% of the S&P 500 reported, the blended YoY EPS growth rate for Q1 is 27.7% — the highest reading outside of recession recoveries in two decades. The market isn't getting expensive on hope; it's getting expensive on cash flow.
Source: Bloomberg
No one cares for protection
The SKEW Index — which measures the price of out-of-the-money S&P 500 puts (the cost of catastrophe insurance) — just dropped to a 7-year low. Nobody is bidding for downside protection. The tape is paying for upside instead.
Source: CBOE
$2.6 Trillion In One Day
SPX call options traded a record $2.6 TRILLION in notional value in a single session — with almost 60% of the volume going through in same-day expiries. The casino isn't a side bet anymore; it's the whole tape.
Source: CBOE
Casino Got A Bigger Stack
$700 Billion In Buybacks
S&P 500 buyback announcements crossed $700 billion year-to-date — a pace that, if it holds, lands well above $1 trillion for the full year. The buyback window is reopening just as breadth is widening.
Source: Bloomberg
Two Markets, One Tape
Stocks Stopped Watching Oil
At the peak of the Iran hostilities, S&P 500 and oil prices moved inversely — exactly the textbook risk-off response. That relationship is now long gone. The S&P shrugged as oil ripped +5% today on stalled peace talks.
Source: Bloomberg
Just Because...
The Ocean Makes Half The Air You're Breathing
Roughly 50–80% of Earth's oxygen is produced by phytoplankton in the ocean — more than all the world's rainforests combined. These microscopic organisms are responsible for every other breath you take. The Amazon is important. The ocean is doing more.
