Buffer Note
Elevated rates and collapsed vol at the same time — for the SPX/INDU buffer note, this is the setup.
The S&P went from -9% to a new all-time high in
Tech Rally for the ages XLK gained more than 20% in 13 days — a move only seen before at the Covid lows, 2009 lows, and 2002 lows. The biggest difference: this |
VIX: 7th Biggest Crash Ever
The VIX fell 38% in 2 weeks — the 7th largest volatility crash in recorded history. Six of the other six times were market bottoms
Airlines have been here before. What happened last time? In 2022, oil spiked 63% after the Ukraine invasion. Airlines drew down 25–31%. They recovered. In 2026 |
Big Tech Bargain? The Nasdaq 100’s valuation spread to the S&P 500 has compressed to its lowest level since 2018 (Bloomberg, as of 4/2/2026). The last time this |
Retail Sold Thursday's Rip
Institutions drove Thursday's 3.5% SPX rally — and retail used it as an exit. JPMorgan flow data showed net retail selling on the best
Oil's $50 Hangover
Brent hit an all-time high of $144/bbl — then a ceasefire dropped and oil fell 17% to $91 in 48 hours. Five weeks of war premium, gone before
The Pros Call for Lower Oil
Crude oil futures are in the deepest contango ever recorded — front month priced well below 12 month out.
Source: Bloomberg
Retail
The bond market is repricing what can’t be disrupted. Software credit spreads have widened 250+ basis points YTD. Meanwhile, infrastructure (PAVE) is up 35% over |
The Futures Market Is Calling Oil’s Bluff
WTI futures curve has flipped back to contango — the market is pricing the war premium as temporary. Right call if the
Waiting for the wash out
The current selloff is already 42 days old — 8 days longer than 2025's worst drawdown — yet has produced barely half the % decline
