Volatility Pulse - Strong to very strong
1881. No Precedent.
CAPE at 39: no historical period since 1881 has been followed by attractive long-term real returns. 145 years of data for SPX.
Source: Norbert Keimling
Semis drive the bus
Every $1 into SPY now goes 18 cents into semis (record). 37 cents into the Mag7 (near-record), and 41 cents into the top 10 names (record). Strip out AI and the S&P rally almost entirely disappears.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Tech's Best Q1 Since the Recovery
Tech sector EPS ex-Mag7 grew 50.1% in Q1—a pace only seen during the post-GFC recovery in 2010. The AI earnings are real. The question is whether everything else has priced in the same growth.
Source: Bloomberg
NDX's Best May in Five Years
Nasdaq-100 gained +10.49% in May—its best month in five years. April was already a 9% recovery. The AI melt-up didn't start in 2023. It restarted in April.
Source: Bloomberg
Momentum +15%, Safety -19%
Momentum factor returned +14.52% last month; low-volatility posted -19.03%. The market is punishing defense and rewarding acceleration simultaneously—the widest single-month gap in years.
Source: Bloomberg
Straddles at Five-Year Lows
SPX 1-month straddle is priced at just 2.89%—near 5-year lows. The options market is pricing exactly zero drama for the next 30 days. Complacency everywhere. Good time to buy protection.
Source: Bloomberg
Only Fear in Semis: The Crash Up
Semis options skew has inverted—calls are now more expensive than puts for the first time ever. The market's only priced-in risk in AI names is a melt-up, not a meltdown. Incredible time for collars for anyone who has gains to protect in these monster semi rallies.
Source: Bloomberg
Congressional Robinhood account?
Someone spent $25M on an SPX Aug 8600/8800 call spread—potential payout of ~$2.2B if the index melts up 16% by August. That's not a hedge. That's a statement.
Source: Bloomberg
Cash at Record Low 10%
BofA private clients slashed their cash allocation to a record low 10%—the lowest reading in the data series. They've deployed more into equities than at any prior point.
Source: BofA
More In Stocks Than 2000
US households now hold a higher share of financial assets in stocks than at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000. That prior record was set in a year that ended badly for everyone.
Source: Bloomberg
LevETF AUM: $187 Billion
Leveraged ETF assets hit an all-time high of $187B—with $1B+ weekly inflows in six separate weeks this quarter. 87% of that is concentrated in AI Tech Leadership themes.
Source: Bloomberg
The Hedge That Unhedged
BTC ETFs: 9 Days Straight
Bitcoin ETFs recorded 9 consecutive days of outflows totaling $2.8B—the longest outflow streak since launch. The debasement trade that brought in $50B in inflows is quietly unwinding.
Source: Bloomberg
Just Because...
A Teaspoon of Neutron Star Weighs More Than Everest
A single teaspoon of neutron star material weighs approximately 10 billion tons—more than every mountain on Earth combined. Neutron stars pack the mass of our Sun into a sphere 10 miles wide. Context is everything.
