Volatility Pulse - Nothing like the real thing

Vinay Tolia |

SpaceX proxies fall

EchoStar owns roughly 2% of SpaceX — and on the day SpaceX soared 19%, EchoStar fell from the mid-$130s to as low as $106. Turns out it doesn't even receive its SpaceX shares until 2027.

SpaceX proxies fall

Source: Bloomberg


Nothing like the real thing

While SpaceX popped, the 26 other listed space stocks fell an average 9% on the day — led by Virgin Galactic down 31%, the ticker retail had mistakenly bid up for weeks thinking it was the real thing.

Nothing like the real thing

Source: Bespoke


The Melt-Up Has No Brakes

The Most Overbought Stock Ever

Sandisk just hit a 99.13 monthly RSI — the most overbought reading for any stock in recorded history. It went from about $100 to nearly $2,000 in roughly a year.

The Most Overbought Stock Ever

Source: Barchart


Memory Ate the Year

The top performer of 2026 is Sandisk, up 734% — and the top 7 names on the leaderboard are all memory or AI-hardware stocks. The boring corner of semis became the whole story.

Memory Ate the Year

Source: Futurum


NVDA forward P/E the lowest in almost a decade

Nvidia trades near its cheapest forward P/E in a decade — around 20x, just above its all-time low of 18.4. The most important stock in the AI economy is priced like an afterthought.

NVDA forward P/E the lowest in almost a decade

Source: Fiscal.ai


AI Eats Its Own

AI Has an Inflation Bill

Computing prices normally fall every year. This year, consumer prices for computer software and accessories surged 14.5% — the biggest annual jump on record. AI is showing up in the CPI now.

AI Has an Inflation Bill

Source: BLS


Every Dollar Into the Buildout

By year-end, hyperscaler capex is set to consume nearly 100% of operating cash flow (98% consensus) - surpassing the dot-com telecom peak. The most profitable companies in history are about to generate almost no free cash.

Every Dollar Into the Buildout

Source: Goldman Sachs


Software Left for Dead

The forward P/E of software stocks just fell below both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 — the first time in memory the group has traded at a discount to the index it used to lead. ARR is accelerating; the multiple says recession.

Software Left for Dead

Source: Koyfin


The Baton Passes

AI Labs are projected to generate $45 billion of net-new ARR in Q2 — more than the public software industry and the hyperscalers individually. A category that barely existed two years ago is now the biggest new-revenue engine in enterprise tech.

The Baton Passes

Source: Coatue


The Hiking World

Solar Beat Coal. First Time.

Solar produced 12.8% of US electricity in May, edging out coal at 12.2% — the first time that's ever happened in a full month. A century of coal dominance ended without a headline.

Solar Beat Coal. First Time.

Source: Ember


Gold's Long Hangover

Gold is now 24% off its high. Since 1980, similar drawdowns bounced 70% of the time over the next month — but were higher only 30% of the time a year later. Relief, history says, is not repair.

Gold's Long Hangover

Source: SentimenTrader


Just Because...

One Language Has 161 Sounds

Taa — spoken by fewer than 2,000 people in Botswana — uses 161 distinct sounds, including 130 consonants. English gets by on about 40. More than 70% of Taa words start with a click, and linguists suspect they still haven't catalogued them all.

One Language Has 161 Sounds

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