Volatility Pulse - Summertime Tech
Throwing In The Towel
Three-month outflows from the Magnificent Seven ETF are approaching a record. Investors are heading for the door right as the group got marked down.
Source: scottcharts
Nasdaq Rarely Peaks In June
Since 1971, the Nasdaq Composite has set its high for the year in June exactly once. Forty-five percent of the time it peaks in December instead.
Source: DataTrek Research
So Much For Green July
July is normally QQQ's single best month, averaging +3.27% since 2010. This July it is -10.14% — the worst in the table, and only the second negative July in seventeen years.
Source: Barchart
Two Red Months, Then What?
Every year since 1928 in which both June and July closed lower, and what the rest of the year did afterward. The entire sample fits on one screen.
Source: OddStats
Five Years, Five Red Septembers
In the five years QQQ posted a double-digit down month — 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2022 — September finished negative every single time, and never by less than 10%.
Source: OddStats
Beat The Number, Lose Anyway
Tech stocks that beat earnings estimates are underperforming the S&P 500 by an average of 3.3% around their report day this season — the worst reading in the seven years of data shown.
Source: Kevin Gordon
Trading Places, Literally
In January, bond investors demanded a bigger premium to lend to energy companies than to technology companies. Seven months later the two have swapped, with tech now paying the wider spread.
Source: S&P Global
Estimates Went Up Anyway
Since July 10, analysts have raised third-quarter S&P 500 earnings estimates by about 0.6%, against a typical mid-season cut of 0.5%. The numbers got better while the prices got worse.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Four Hundred Days Up
South Korea's KOSPI gained 297.4% over 439 days from April 2025 to June 2026 — its strongest bull market since the 850.8% run from 1982 to 1989 — then handed back 33.9% in the 36 days that followed.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
The Upper Middle Finished Last
Ranked by wealth, the top 1% gained the most over the past year at 10.5%. The group that gained the least wasn't the bottom half, which rose 7.2% — it was the 50th-to-90th percentile, at 5.6%.
Source: Goldman Sachs via Mike Zaccardi
Up 23x, Then Cut In Half
SanDisk is up 2,266% over the past year and down 56.5% since June 25. Both numbers describe the same stock, five weeks apart.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Works In Practice, Not Theory
"The problem with QE is that it works in practice, but it doesn't work in theory." Two decades on, still the tidiest description of modern monetary policy anyone has managed.
Source: Ben Bernanke via Meb Faber
Just Because...
President, Wrestler, Patent Holder
Abraham Lincoln is the only US president to hold a patent — for a device to lift boats over shallow water using inflatable bellows. It was never manufactured. He also held the most wrestling wins in his county before running for office. The resume was real.
