Volatility Pulse - The Miserable Bull
Everything Made A High
The NYSE Composite, the median US stock, the average S&P 500 stock, large caps, mid caps and small caps all closed at new highs on the same day. Six different ways of measuring the market, six new records.
Source: @TheDonInvesting
Four Straight Weeks Of Grumbling
More individual investors have called themselves bearish than bullish for four consecutive weeks, 37.9% against 34.7% in the latest survey and 42.3% against 29.6% back in July. Pessimism has been the consensus all month.
Source: AAII via @JC_ParetsX
The Cost Of Sitting Still
Here is everything you had to ignore this decade to collect the S&P's roughly 16% a year: a pandemic, 9% inflation, the worst bond crash on record, 73 crash calls from Robert Kiyosaki and 19 top calls from Michael Burry. Doing nothing was a full-time job.
Source: @awealthofcs
Nobody's Panicked Since December
It has been 154 trading days since the S&P last had a session where nearly every stock moved the same direction, and the last one was New Year's Eve. That is the longest stretch of calm since March 2001.
Source: Bespoke
Fourteen $100 Billion Months
ETFs have taken in more than $100 billion every single month for 14 months running. Before about two and a half years ago, a $100 billion month had happened exactly once.
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence via @EricBalchunas
Nine Hundred New ETFs
Roughly 900 new ETFs have launched in the US since January, against about 1,050 for all of last year, which was itself the record. The levered slice has never been a bigger share of the pile.
Source: Baird Strategas via @KobeissiLetter
They Cut, It Went Up
The Fed started cutting in September 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield under 4%. It has since cut 175 basis points and the 30-year sits at 5.27%.
Source: Creative Planning via @charliebilello
Bonds have AI exposure too
AI-related borrowing now accounts for nearly 40% of all new long-dated investment-grade corporate bond supply, up from about 10% last year. Roughly $70 billion of it has priced in 2026 alone.
Source: Apollo
One Stock, Twelve Percent
Nvidia has added more than 10 percentage points to the S&P 500's roughly 84% total return over five years, about 12% of the entire gain. The next biggest contributor, Apple, added barely half that.
Source: Bloomberg via @KobeissiLetter
Small Caps, Big Estimates
Analysts expect Russell 2000 earnings to grow 37% this year and 45% next, against 32% and 12% for the S&P 500. The forecast gap for 2027 is nearly four to one.
Source: Goldman Sachs via @ISABELNET_SA
Not All Tech, Actually
Tech led year-to-date returns on 208 trading days in 2023. Utilities led for 88 days in 2024, industrials and tech split 2025, and energy has led on 118 of the 154 days so far this year.
Source: Bluekurtic Market Insights
Big Oil's Record Quarter
The five largest international oil companies generated close to $70 billion of free cash flow last quarter, topping the peak they set during the invasion of Ukraine. Energy is printing cash while nobody watches.
Source: Bloomberg Opinion via @KobeissiLetter
Just Because...
Romans Brushed Their Teeth With Urine
Ancient Romans used fermented human urine as mouthwash and tooth powder, and it genuinely worked. Urine contains ammonia, which whitens teeth and kills bacteria. Portuguese urine was considered premium grade and imported specifically for the purpose. Even then, sourcing mattered.
