Trade Idea — XLY
If the economy is bifurcating, where's the high-income consumer spending?
NY Fed economists confirmed this week that consumer spending has been
More Fuel on the Fire
Piper's macro team now pegs 2026 NEW fiscal impulse at $656B — $266B from lower tariffs, $190B from individual tax cuts, $200B from
Crude $108. SPX Cannot Be Bothered.
WTI just closed at the highest level since 2022 on "Trump tells aides to prep for lengthy Hormuz blockade" headlines, while
Income Note & Snowball — KRE
Regional banks. Three valuation measures. Same conclusion.
KRE forward P/E sits at 14.1x — 30% below the S&P 500's 20.0x. Price-to
Record High. Record Low. Same Day.
U Mich Consumer Sentiment revised to 49.8 in April — the lowest reading on record — while the S&P 500 trades at all-time highs
Call buying Mania
The 5-day moving average of the call/put volume ratio hit an 11-month high last week — 95th percentile since 2010. Net call volume went further
Buffer Note
Elevated rates and collapsed vol at the same time — for the SPX/INDU buffer note, this is the setup.
The S&P went from -9% to a new all-time high in
Tech Rally for the ages XLK gained more than 20% in 13 days — a move only seen before at the Covid lows, 2009 lows, and 2002 lows. The biggest difference: this |
VIX: 7th Biggest Crash Ever
The VIX fell 38% in 2 weeks — the 7th largest volatility crash in recorded history. Six of the other six times were market bottoms
Airlines have been here before. What happened last time? In 2022, oil spiked 63% after the Ukraine invasion. Airlines drew down 25–31%. They recovered. In 2026 |
Big Tech Bargain? The Nasdaq 100’s valuation spread to the S&P 500 has compressed to its lowest level since 2018 (Bloomberg, as of 4/2/2026). The last time this |
Retail Sold Thursday's Rip
Institutions drove Thursday's 3.5% SPX rally — and retail used it as an exit. JPMorgan flow data showed net retail selling on the best
