The Oil Shock That Isn't (Yet)
Hormuz Traffic: Basically Zero
Despite headlines suggesting oil is still flowing, actual Strait of Hormuz traffic data shows
How expensive is US tech right now? The Nasdaq 100 trades at 33x earnings — near its 92nd percentile of the last decade. The broad Chinese market? Sitting near |
Calm Surface, Chaos Below
Single stocks are realizing ~25 vol points over the index — the highest spread on record — while the S&P 500 trades in one of its
Energy. Up 20% YTD while the S&P is flat and tech is negative. Yet the average portfolio has |
Tariff Whiplash
90% of Tariffs Fell on Americans
NY Fed research indicates nearly 90% of tariff costs were borne by US firms and consumers through November 2025
Hardware companies eat into tech
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Very Different States of mind between sectors
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Market is Calm but seems to be masking something
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The market rerates what it considers fair value multiples should be
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