Surface Strength, Internal Damage
S&P 500 at an all-time high — and 7.7% of its members just hit 252-day lows simultaneously. Smart Money Confidence: 0.44
Growth Note — EWY
Korea's market is up 200% in a year. Why does it still trade at a fraction of the S&P's multiple?
EWY returned +213.8% over the last 12 months
Semi trucked
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is now more than 50% above its 200-day moving average — the first time it's done that in 26 years. The last
Four Tickers, 20% Of The Tape
MU, AMD, INTC and SNDK accounted for ~20% of all single-stock notional traded Tuesday. The entire option-skew leaderboard for NDX
Trade Idea — XLY
If the economy is bifurcating, where's the high-income consumer spending?
NY Fed economists confirmed this week that consumer spending has been
More Fuel on the Fire
Piper's macro team now pegs 2026 NEW fiscal impulse at $656B — $266B from lower tariffs, $190B from individual tax cuts, $200B from
Crude $108. SPX Cannot Be Bothered.
WTI just closed at the highest level since 2022 on "Trump tells aides to prep for lengthy Hormuz blockade" headlines, while
Income Note & Snowball — KRE
Regional banks. Three valuation measures. Same conclusion.
KRE forward P/E sits at 14.1x — 30% below the S&P 500's 20.0x. Price-to
Record High. Record Low. Same Day.
U Mich Consumer Sentiment revised to 49.8 in April — the lowest reading on record — while the S&P 500 trades at all-time highs
Call buying Mania
The 5-day moving average of the call/put volume ratio hit an 11-month high last week — 95th percentile since 2010. Net call volume went further
Buffer Note
Elevated rates and collapsed vol at the same time — for the SPX/INDU buffer note, this is the setup.
The S&P went from -9% to a new all-time high in
Tech Rally for the ages XLK gained more than 20% in 13 days — a move only seen before at the Covid lows, 2009 lows, and 2002 lows. The biggest difference: this |
