Volatility Pulse - Stagflation Special
$100 Oil and the Hormuz Chokepoint
Markets Are a 1-Variable Story
Intraday oil-equity correlation hit –76% — the market is now completely driven by crude.
Source: Bloomberg
WTI's Biggest Week Since 1988
Crude surged 36% this week — the largest weekly gain as far back as Bloomberg data goes. The 2022 Russia/Ukraine spike doesn't even come close.
Source: Bloomberg
How Bad Can $100 Oil Get?
BofA's macro impact analysis of sustained $100+ oil. Every 15% gas price increase lifts headline CPI by ~50bps within 2-3 months.
Source: BofA
The Payroll Paradox
SPX Down Only 1.5% Despite Everything
Record oil spike + terrible payrolls + AI disruption + private credit fears = SPX –1.5% on the week. First week all year a straddle actually paid off (barely).
Source: Bloomberg
NFP: –92K and Losses in Almost Every Industry
Worst payroll print in months — and even stripping out the 31K healthcare strike and birth-death model, payrolls STILL fell 25K. No silver lining.
Source: Jason Furman
Tech Jobs: Worst Since the Dot-Com Bust
Tech employment down 57K over the past year — nearly as bad as the 2024 tech-cession, worse than 2008 or 2020. Only the dot-com bust compares.
Source: Joseph Politano / Apricitas Economics
Silicon for Steel
AI Baskets Down 7-8% in a Week
Every thematic tech basket got obliterated: AI Data Centers –7.85%, Global Semis –7.50%, Quantum Computing –4.73%, Bitcoin Sensitive –6.67%. The rotation from silicon to steel is accelerating.
Source: Bloomberg
Oracle Cancels OpenAI Data Center Expansion
ORCL and OpenAI ended plans to expand their Texas data center site. Bloom Energy cratered 25% intraday. The AI capex narrative just got a real-world stress test.
Source: Bloomberg
Commodity Sequencing: Energy Is Moving Now
Tavi Costa's framework: gold moves first, copper follows, energy moving now, agricultural commodities likely next. We're in Phase 3 of the commodity super-cycle.
Source: Tavi Costa / Crescat Capital
Vol's Identity Crisis
SPX Pricing 3% Weekly Move — Highest Since Liberation Day
The 1-week straddle is pricing in a 3% SPX move next week, biggest implied since Liberation Day. CPI on March 11 alone pricing a 1.2% move.
Source: Bloomberg
Credit Cracks Beneath the Surface
Healthcare "Defensives" Down 3.5x SPY
Nothing defensive about the defensives: Health Care –4.64%, Materials –7.15% vs SPY –1.9% on the week. Only energy finished green. The 'rotation to safety' trade is getting smoked.
Source: Bloomberg
HY Spreads Off the Tights
CDX HY widened to 348 from sub-300 tights — approaching April 2025 highs near 450. The move from compressed to widening is just getting started.
Source: Bloomberg
Weak Dollar + Commodities = 79% Win Rate
SentimenTrader: when the dollar weakens and commodities surge simultaneously, forward returns have a 76-79% upside win rate. The classic seesaw is back.
Source: SentimenTrader
Just Because...
The Amazon's Boiling River
Deep in the Peruvian Amazon, there's a river called Shanay-Timpishka that reaches temperatures up to 93°C (200°F) — hot enough to boil small animals alive. It's not near any volcano. The river is heated by geothermal fault lines and stretches for 6.24 km. The local Asháninka people have known about it for centuries but Western science only "discovered" it in 2011. Mother Nature doesn't need a stove.
