Volatility Pulse - A Few Good Stocks
The market did fine. Investors, not so much
From 2002 to 2021 the S&P 500 returned 9.5% a year. The average investor earned 3.6%, barely above 2.2% inflation.
Source: Arvy
The average year almost never happens
Since 1928 the S&P 500 has averaged about 10% a year, yet only 4% of years landed within two points of that. The rest were a party or a punch.
Source: Arvy
Top Heavy
Only 17.5% of S&P 500 stocks are needed to explain 80% of this year's gains. The March 2000 low, a record at the time, was 17.8%.
Source: 22V Research
Even TikTok Shop obeys the power law
The top 0.1% of TikTok Shop sellers, all 126 of them, account for 24.7% of sales. The bottom half, more than 63,000 sellers, share 0.1%.
Source: Marketplace Pulse
AI might outspend national defense
Projected AI capex of $2.8T in 2028 would be about 1.5x US single-family mortgage originations and roughly 3x the national defense budget. A projection, but a big one.
Source: Coatue
Zoom out a bit
The chip index sits 22.4% below its June 22 peak. Cut it in half from that peak and it would only be back where it closed on March 30, 2026.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Companies might stop buying stocks
Forecasts put net corporate demand for US stocks (buybacks plus cash M&A, minus new issuance and unlocks) near zero in 2027. Since 1995 it has only gone negative twice: 1996 and 2000.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Last call for America?
Only 54% of US adults say they drink alcohol, the lowest in a Gallup poll that goes back to 1939.
Source: Gallup
Gen Z is out-earning millennials
Adjusted for inflation, Gen Z earned 20% to 40% more in 2025 than millennials did at the same age in 2015, at every income level.
Source: PNC Research
Saving more... and gambling more
Compared with millennials at the same age, Gen Z puts 2.3 more points of its spending toward retirement. On their cards, gambling's share is up 3 points, the biggest jump of any category.
Source: PNC Research
AI is already in the shopping cart
37% of US consumers bought something based on an AI recommendation in the past year, and 44% say AI helps them find better value.
Source: Statista
Just don't let it hit buy
Asked whether they'd let AI make the purchase for them, 42% said they wouldn't trust it at all. Even the top category, clothing, only gets 27%.
Source: Statista
Just Because...
A Blue Whale Heart Weighs 400 Pounds
The heart of a blue whale weighs around 400 pounds and is roughly the size of a small car. Its arteries are wide enough for a person to crawl through, and it beats just two times a minute when the whale dives.
