Volatility Pulse - The Agents are Coming!
AI agents now use 5x the tokens humans do
On OpenRouter, agentic token usage hit 7.3 trillion per week, a 14x increase since February. Humans peaked around 1.4 trillion. Agents overtook people on February 6, 2026 and never looked back.
Source: OpenRouter via a16z
Big Tech's cash became chipmakers' cash
Hyperscaler free cash flow went from $275 billion in 2022 to roughly zero today. Semiconductor FCF went from $50 billion to north of $400 billion over the same stretch. The lines crossed in 2026.
Source: BofA Investment Research via a16z
Hyperscalers borrow more than most countries
Hyperscaler net bond issuance hit $207 billion YTD through September 17, exceeding the annual net supply of France ($158B), Germany ($157B), Italy ($106B), and Spain ($57B). Only the US Treasury at $1.063 trillion issues more.
Source: SocGen via @AyeshaTariq
AI safety got a handshake deal
Interesting typo on the piece of paper with the most powerful tech leaders in the world pledging AI safety
Source: @StockSavvyShay
The 30-year yield just hit 5.65%
The US 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.648%, its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The entire long end of the curve is repricing in real time.
Source: @Barchart
Small caps carry nearly 4x the rate exposure
S&P 600 small caps have 38.9% of their debt in variable rate instruments versus just 10.5% for the S&P 500. Mid caps sit at 31%. Every basis point higher hits the smallest companies hardest.
Source: 22V Research
The S&P is 1% from a high, the average stock is 16% below
The S&P 500 sits just 1% off its all-time high, but the average stock in the index is still 16% below its own peak. Technology has 29.7% of its names hitting 4-week highs. Utilities have 77.4% of names hitting 4-week lows.
Source: Duality Research
Tech is lapping small caps at a record pace
The XLK/IWM ratio hit 0.70, a new high on the chart which begins in 2020. The distance from the 50-day moving average reached 10.88, a spike that historically marks an extreme.
Source: Thrasher Analytics
The equity risk premium is at 2.09%
The S&P 500 equity risk premium fell to 2.09% as of September 23, less than half the historical median of 5.13%. Stocks have not offered this little extra compensation over bonds since before the financial crisis.
Source: @JeremyDSchwartz
SPY up 85%, Nike down 75%, same five years
Over the last five years, the S&P 500 ETF returned +85.26% while Nike lost 75.24%. The two lines could not look more different. Same market, same economy, opposite outcomes.
Source: Creative Planning via @CharlieBilello
Gen Z says $600K is the salary to feel successful
In a survey by Empower, Gen Z said they need a $600,000 annual salary to feel financially successful, a level above the 99th percentile of actual US incomes. Millennials said $200K, Gen X $210K, Boomers $100K.
Source: Empower Survey / BCG via @MebFaber
The index moved 0.7%, the average stock moved 8.5%
Over the past month, the S&P 500 moved just 0.7% while the average stock in it moved 8.5%. That 7.8 percentage point spread ranks in the 95th percentile over the past 30 years. Individual stocks are swinging wildly while the index barely moves.
Source: Nomura via Bloomberg
Just Because...
The Slinky Was Navy Equipment
In 1943 a naval engineer was designing something to keep gear from sliding around on ships pitching at sea, dropped his coiled wire, and watched it walk end over end across the floor. His wife found the word slinky in the dictionary. More than 250 million had sold by the time it reached the Toy Hall of Fame.
