RIA Ideas - The building block of AI

Vinay Tolia |
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Weekly Market Commentary

 

Live Trade: SMH / XLE / XLU

America now spends more building AI than building homes.

US investment in data centers and computing hit about $455 billion annualized in Q2, passing new single-family homes at roughly $410 billion (Joseph Politano, 8/2/2026). And the forecasts keep chasing it: the 2027 hyperscaler capex estimate went from $373 billion to $939 billion in twelve months (J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 7/26/2026).

That buildout takes three things: the chips (SMH +56.1% YTD), the power to run them (XLU +2.4% YTD), and the fuel behind the power (XLE +27.7% YTD, all as of 8/9/2026, Yahoo Finance). The market has priced the boom into the chips. The other two may still be catching up.

Wall Street Keeps Raising Their Number

2027 hyperscaler AI capex estimate rose from 373 billion dollars twelve months ago to 939 billion dollars today, a 150 percent revision, and 2026 year-to-date returns for SMH, XLE, SPY, and XLU

Data: J.P. Morgan Asset Management as of 7/26/2026; Yahoo Finance as of 8/9/2026 · marinelayeradvisors.com/insights

This one is currently live with BNP

LIVE TRADE  ·  MARINE LAYER TRADE WITH BNP

5-Year Dual Directional Catapult

Worst-of SMH / XLE / XLU

One-time call at 12 months

33.35%

Upside if not called

300% participation
on the worst performer

Dual directional

100% positive participation down the first -30%

Downside protection

30% hard buffer

Strike date

8/24/2026

CUSIP

09664NEE3

If the worst performer of the three is at or above its starting level at month 12, the note is called and may pay 33.35%. If it is not called, at maturity the note may pay 3x the gain on the worst performer. If the worst performer finishes below its start but within the 30% buffer, the note may pay a positive return equal to the size of that decline, up to 30%. Below the buffer, the first 30% of the decline is absorbed and the investor may participate in the decline beyond it.

Open for any allocation for Marine Layer Customers while the markets permit.

Live offering. Terms subject to final pricing at the 8/24/2026 strike.

Payoff diagram: a one-time call at month 12 paying 33.35 percent if all three underliers are at or above their start; at maturity 3x participation in the gain of the worst of SMH, XLE, and XLU; a positive return equal to the decline if the worst performer is down but within the 30 percent buffer; and beyond the buffer the first 30 percent of the decline absorbed

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This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Data sourced from Joseph Politano (US Bureau of Economic Analysis data) as of 8/2/2026, J.P. Morgan Asset Management as of 7/26/2026, and Yahoo Finance as of 8/9/2026, and has not been independently verified. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Structured notes involve risks including potential loss of principal. This note provides a 30% hard buffer: the investor is exposed to any decline beyond 30% in the worst underlier at maturity. The dual directional feature applies only while the buffer holds; if the worst underlier finishes more than 30% below its initial level, the positive-return feature no longer applies and the note may return less than principal. The call feature is one-time at month 12, and all terms shown are indicative and subject to final pricing at the 8/24/2026 strike. Structured note pricing is subject to issuer credit risk, market conditions, and availability at time of execution.