Volatility Pulse - Records were made to be broken
America's Markup Just Shrank
The premium investors pay for US stocks over the rest of the world has fallen to about 22% on forward earnings, the narrowest in more than six years and below its own 10-year average of 31%. The world's priciest market quietly got marked down.
Source: Bloomberg
The Giants Lost Their Markup
The five biggest US stocks now trade near 21x forward earnings against roughly 19x for the other 495 -- a premium that held consistently since 2017 and touched 50x in 2000. The gap that defined the last decade has nearly closed.
Source: Goldman Sachs via Brian Sozzi
Chips On Sale
S&P 500 semiconductors trade at 15.9x forward earnings, a discount to the broad market. The multiple came down because forward earnings climbed faster than prices slipped -- none of it driven by a worse outlook.
Source: Yardeni Research
Not Just A Tech Story
S&P 500 reported profit margins reached about 14%, and stripping Tech out entirely they still sit near 11.8% -- both at the top of their two-decade range. The margin story runs deeper than the megacaps.
Source: SocGen
14% Above A 90-Year Trend
S&P 500 quarterly earnings now sit 14% above the trend channel they have tracked since 1935. Nine decades of gravity, currently being ignored.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Estimates Went Up Instead
Global consensus earnings estimates for both 2026 and 2027 have never been higher, and both are still climbing. Forecasts usually get trimmed as a year wears on -- these are going the other direction.
Source: Goldman Sachs via Mike Zaccardi
The Biggest Buyer Was Benched
Only about 45% of the S&P 500 by index weight is currently clear to repurchase its own shares. That share climbs past 80% within a week and toward 96% by mid-September as earnings blackout windows expire.
Source: Citadel Securities
Fourth Time Since 1957
The S&P 500 went 42 days without a record, then cleared the old peak by more than 1.5% in a single session. That combination has happened only three other times since 1957 -- 1985, 1997 and 2020.
Source: OddStats
Thirteen Billion, One ETF Complex
Daily rebalancing in leveraged semiconductor ETFs has spiked to roughly $13 billion of notional on the biggest days, against a norm closer to $2 billion for most of the past three years. The tail has been wagging the chips.
Source: Bloomberg
Chips And Software, Together
On August 4 semiconductors gained about 7% and software about 4.5% while the S&P 500 added 1.8% -- the first session all year that both beat the index by more than two points.
Source: FactSet via Josh Schafer
Nine Dollars To Sixty
An S&P 500 August 7,800 call changed hands at $9.00 and finished the same session at $60.00 -- roughly 6.7x in a matter of hours, on a day SPX call volume hit a record near 4 million contracts.
Source: Bloomberg
Just Because...
Everest Isn't The Real Top
The point on Earth closest to outer space isn't Everest, it's Mount Chimborazo in Ecuador. Because the planet bulges at the equator, Chimborazo's peak sits about 1.3 miles farther from Earth's center, even though it's shorter above sea level.
