Volatility Pulse - Perspective Matters
The Luckiest Generation Yet
Someone born in the 1980s has spent about 7% of their first 40 years in a recession. Someone born in 1900 spent 43%. Each generation has lived through dramatically less economic pain.
Source: NBER
Recessions Got Scarce
The last 20 years have seen just one recession, lasting about two months. A generation ago, a typical 20-year stretch had three or four. Downturns have quietly become rare events.
Source: NBER
$47 Billion of Leverage, Gone
Assets in leveraged tech ETFs fell from about $122 billion to $75 billion -- roughly $47 billion of borrowed-money exposure unwound, a big chunk of it in the semiconductor funds alone.
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto Enthusiasm Ran Dry
Crypto price sentiment just hit a four-year low -- the least excitement across the space since 2022, even with prices nowhere near those lows.
Source: Bloomberg
Google's $45 Billion Quarter
Alphabet's quarterly capex went from about $6.8 billion in mid-2022 to $44.9 billion -- a sixfold jump in four years, with no sign of the spending slowing.
Source: Fiscal.ai
AI Wants 194 Gigawatts
Data-center power demand is projected to reach 194 gigawatts by 2035, up from almost nothing in 2010. The AI build-out is turning into one of the largest power stories in decades.
Source: BloombergNEF
Private Equity Pays the Premium
US private-equity buyouts are going through at about 17x EV/EBITDA while public microcaps trade near 10x. The 'cheap' private deals now cost more than the small stocks anyone can buy.
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Buybacks: Made in Britain
The UK -- not the US -- is the buyback capital of the world, with the highest buyback yield of any major market at roughly 5.8%. The market everyone calls cheap and unloved is quietly returning the most cash.
Source: Schroders
Same Debt, Different Story
Japan and the UK carry similar debt loads but sit at opposite ends of the bond market -- one pinning yields down, the other letting them run. Two playbooks for the same problem.
Source: Haver Analytics
Lobbying for the Moat
One leading AI lab doubled its political spending to $40 million for the midterms. As the models commoditize, some of the fiercest competition may be moving from the code to the capitol.
Source: Public First Action
The Shopper Won't Quit
Same-store retail sales are still running up about 7.8% year over year even as broader growth cools. The American consumer keeps spending well above what a slowing economy would suggest.
Source: Redbook
Just Because...
All the Oceans Fit in a Marble
Earth's oceans look endless from space, but they're a rounding error: less than 0.1% of the planet's volume. Gather every drop of ocean, lake and river into a single ball and it would be a small sphere next to the Earth -- a marble beside a basketball.
