Volatility Pulse - When Winners Wobble
The Scary Selloff That Wasn't
Semiconductors just had their worst two-week stretch of the year, down about 25%. Zoom out and it barely dents a rally that ran for months. Perspective is the whole game.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Most Stocks Are above their 200 day moving average
70% of S&P 500 stocks sit above their 200-day average -- the best breadth since 2024. The headline mega-caps are bleeding, but the average stock is quietly holding its ground.
Source: Barchart
Momentum Broke, Index Didn't
High-beta momentum stocks dropped 20% while the S&P 500 kept climbing to new highs. It's the crowded winners unwinding beneath a calm surface -- the same leveraged, self-reinforcing machinery that makes 2x and 3x ETFs whip hard in both directions.
Source: Sherwood
The Boring Portfolio Wins
The Permanent Portfolio -- equal parts stocks, bonds, gold and cash -- is up 16% this year, its best return in three decades. The strategy built to never excite is having its loudest year ever.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The 50 Days That Decide It All
One dollar in the S&P since 1990 grew to $40. Miss the 25 best days and you're left with $8; miss the 25 worst and you'd have $236. The catch: nobody can tell the two apart in advance.
Source: Ritholtz Wealth Management
Apple's Quietest Record
Apple tagged a fresh all-time high and almost nobody noticed. The most valuable company on earth set a record to a collective shrug.
Source: All Star Charts
The World Can't Stop Buying
Foreign investors bought a record $903.8 billion of US stocks over the past year. Everyone piling in at once has, historically, been the moment to at least check your seatbelt.
Source: Yardeni Research
Second-Priciest in 160 Years
US stocks sit at their second-most-expensive valuation since the 1800s.
Source: Barchart
Only in Markets
$960,000 Jacket, No Shares
Jensen Huang's signature black leather jacket sold at charity auction for $960,000. That buys you the exact look of a trillion-dollar CEO and precisely zero of the stock.
Source: Yahoo Finance
America Won't Stop Starting Up
Americans are filing to launch new businesses at a record pace. Whatever the mood on the tape, the garage-startup engine is redlining.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
The Economy, Actually
Worst July Start in 15 Years
The S&P is negative through July options expiration for the first time in 15 years. In 5 of the 6 closest historical matches, it finished the year green anyway.
Source: OddStats
Just Because...
A Language With No 'Left' or 'Right'
The Guugu Ymithirr people of Australia have no words for 'left' or 'right' -- they navigate purely by compass directions, even indoors. 'Pass the salt' becomes 'move it slightly to the northwest.' The result: they're dramatically better at orientation than the rest of us who think in 'lefts' and 'rights.'
