Volatility Pulse - Launch into the storm
Small Business Boom
New business formation applications are inflecting toward 500K per month — above even the COVID spike
Source: Coatue
The Leverage Tax
Ninety Billion Dollar Tuesday
$90 billion of leveraged and inverse ETF notional traded in a single day — the highest ever recorded, equal to roughly half of all assets in the category. SOXS alone traded 1.3 billion shares, the 3rd-largest ETF session in 20 years behind two records set during the 2008 crisis.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Korea and Taiwan invade EEM
Taiwan and Korea are now half of EEM's assets, led by TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix
Source: Bloomberg
Retail Owns the Tape
Retail's share of total equity volume crossed above 20%, approaching the 2021 meme-era peak — right as tanking tech and crashing crypto jolt the crowd days before the SpaceX IPO. The marginal buyer is the guy with the app again.
Source: Bloomberg
Insurance Repriced Overnight
Tail Insurance Went Viral
TDEX, the gauge of 3-standard-deviation SPY crash protection, jumped from its 1st percentile of the year to the 91st in one week. Crash insurance went from free to wildly expensive in 3 sessions
Source: RBC
Rotation, Not Exodus
MedTech at 2016 Prices
Large-cap MedTech trades near 17x forward earnings — a 10-year low, down from a 27x peak — while product volumes reaccelerate. An entire sector is priced like nothing good ever happens again.
Source: Bloomberg
New Homes, Used Prices
A new house now costs $406.8K — below the $419.5K median for an existing one. Builders are cutting prices to move inventory while existing owners are still asking 2022 numbers.
Source: Bloomberg
$250 billion meme stock
MRVL moved +32% on a trillion-dollar endorsement, -17% in the semi crash, +10% on S&P inclusion — and 1-week implied vol near 120.
Source: Bloomberg
That's Today, Baby
Bad Days Come Standard
The S&P has gained 20%+ in a year 22 times — and the average worst day inside those years was -3.5%, including a near-7% crash in 1997 that still finished a monster year. This week's selloff is the cover charge.
Source: Carson Group
Hikes Back on the Menu
Gold Lost the Plot
Gold closed at its lowest level since November as 2-year real rates climbed to cycle highs near 1.6%. The inflation hedge is losing money in the middle of an inflation scare.
Source: Bloomberg
Just Because...
Voyager Carries a Dead Language to the Stars
Launched in 1977, Voyager 1 carries a golden record with greetings in 55 languages — starting with Akkadian, which has been dead for 6,000 years. It is, technically, Earth's formal introduction to anyone who finds it — and our opening line is in a language nobody alive can speak.
