Volatility Pulse - Jensen Claus is comin to town
MRVL +255%. SMH +77% - Jensen Speaks and the market listens
Marvell Technology is up +255% year-to-date vs the semiconductor ETF at +77%. The gap has been widening since March — and then Jensen Huang called it the next trillion-dollar company. The spike at the far right of this chart IS the moment.
Source: Bloomberg
Only Y2K Was Hotter
The Picks Lapped the Shovels
AI chip suppliers are up +350% while their customers — the hyperscalers buying those chips — have dramatically underperformed. The infrastructure vendors are winning more than the people they're supposed to be powering.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Tech Ate 13 Points of the Index
Technology's weight in the S&P 500 has risen 13.32 percentage points since 2021 — the biggest sector weight change over such short amount of time.
Source: Bloomberg
Options Corner
Is Software the next bounce sector?
The IGV put/call skew has reached an all-time low — calls on the software ETF are now more expensive than puts. For the first time ever, the market is more worried about missing the upside than protecting the downside.
Source: Bloomberg
MSFT Hedges Cost Almost Nothing
Microsoft's put skew ratio hit 1.02 — nearly its all-time low since 2016. The protection that used to cost a premium is now essentially free. Nobody is paying to hedge the world's second-largest company.
Source: Bloomberg
Everyone's All In
Retail Options: All-Time Record
Retail investor daily options volume hit 1.8x the 2020 average — a new all-time record, exceeding every prior peak including the 2021 meme-stock era. The crowd is in, leveraged, and setting records in June.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Euphoria at 12.4%
Barclays' Equity Euphoria Indicator hit 12.4% — well above its 7.1% long-term average. The last time it ran this hot was 2021. The indicator historically precedes sharp corrections.
Source: Barclays
Only Y2K Was Hotter
The Unprofitables Are Winning Again
Goldman's Non-Profitable Tech index is up 158.91% year-over-year — the same cohort that imploded in 2022. AI enthusiasm has fully rehabilitated every speculative name, profitable or not.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Everyone's All In
Since WWII, This Streak Always Paid
Back-to-back monthly gains of 5%+ in the S&P 500: when this has happened since WWII, the next year averaged +14%. History says buy. The current setup matches every prior instance.
Source: Bloomberg
The AI Arms Race Bill
Fifty Billion, Just in Concrete
US data center construction spending hit a record $50 billion annually post-ChatGPT — just the physical buildings, before equipment or power. AI isn't a software story. It's a real estate and energy story.
Source: Bloomberg
One Dollar. Two Hundred Million.
$1 invested in US stocks in 1799, left alone, would be worth roughly $200 million today. No timing, no genius picks. Through wars, crashes, bubbles, pandemics: 250 consecutive years of compounding. America turns 250 on July 4.
Source: Meb Faber
Macro Crosswinds
Bonds Quit the Job
US Treasuries have stopped rallying during S&P 500 drawdowns — the 60/40 hedge that defined portfolio construction for decades has quietly stopped working. The historical bond-equity negative correlation is broken.
Source: Bloomberg
Just Because...
Venus Is Earth-Friendly at 30 Miles Up
Venus surface is 872F with pressure 93x Earth. But at 30 miles altitude temperature is 75F pressure is Earth-like and there is radiation protection. NASA is studying floating cloud cities there. The most hellish planet in the solar system has a surprisingly livable middle layer.
