Volatility Pulse - Crude Awakening
Crude $108. SPX Cannot Be Bothered.
WTI just closed at the highest level since 2022 on "Trump tells aides to prep for lengthy Hormuz blockade" headlines, while the SPX hovers within 2% of all-time highs. The cross-asset correlation broke and nobody told stocks.
Source: Bloomberg
The Tariff Tax
Gas Tax Eats 12% of Refunds
Cumulative US gasoline spend versus a no-Iran-conflict counterfactual has eaten 11.9% of 2026 tax savings as of April 24 — and that share is climbing. The OBBBA tax cut is being clawed back at the pump.
Source: Piper Sandler
Like It's 1999
Valuations Hit 100th Percentile
Average all-time percentile across P/E, price-to-book, Q ratio, and market-cap-to-GDP sits just under 100% — virtually every long-term valuation measure is at or near record highs.
Source: Bloomberg
Capex Hits 15.4% of GDP
US real capex as a % of real GDP just printed 15.4% in Q4 2025 — a record. The hyperscaler capex is off the charts and it's eating an unprecedented share of the economy.
Source: Bloomberg
Mag 7 Earnings Eve
EPS Mo Is the Real Mo
Tech stocks where earnings did the heavy lifting beat the rest of the sector with smaller drawdowns and lower vol — "price mo, driven by EPS mo, is the best mo." Tomorrow tells us which Mag 7 names earned the multiple.
Source: Piper Sandler
Tech Breadth Hits 95%
The NDX High-Low Index crossed 95% after sitting below it for 8+ months — only ~20 prior triggers since 1990, and one year later NDX was higher 100% of the time with a 20% median gain.
Source: Bloomberg
Like It's 1999
$600 Billion in Four Months
12-month forward global profits are $600B higher than four months ago — a 12% upward revision and the largest non-recovery jump on record. AI capex is doing what dot-com couldn't.
Source: SocGen
Tech Eats the Profit Pie
The entire global profit boom is centered on technology and the unprecedented AI data-center buildout. Every other sector is playing catch-up — which is exactly what 1999 looked like.
Source: SocGen
Index Soars, Troops Don't Follow
SPX sits 7% above its 200-day average, yet less than 60% of components trade above their own 200-day. Only 20 prior triggers since 1998 — nine of them came in 1998-1999.
Source: SentimenTrader
Vol Hiding in Plain Sight
Rate Vol's Cheapest Since 2018
TLT 1-year BVOL sits at 11.6 vs SPX 1-year BVOL at 18.9 — a ratio of 0.61, near the cheapest level in over a decade. Long-dated rate vol has never looked more dislocated from equity vol.
Source: Bloomberg
The Tariff Tax
EM Earnings Win the Race
Emerging markets now have by far the greatest earnings momentum globally — outpacing both DM ex-US and the US itself. The dollar trade and the AI trade may not be the only games left.
Source: Fidelity
Just Because...
Romans Brushed Their Teeth With Urine
Ancient Romans used fermented human urine as mouthwash and tooth powder — and it actually worked. Urine contains ammonia, which whitens teeth and kills bacteria. Portuguese urine was considered premium grade and imported specifically for dental hygiene. Quality sourcing, different era.
