Volatility Pulse - Fundamentals vs Feelings
Record High. Record Low. Same Day.
U Mich Consumer Sentiment revised to 49.8 in April — the lowest reading on record — while the S&P 500 trades at all-time highs. The gap between financial market reality and how Americans feel about the economy has never been wider.
Source: LizAnn Sonders
Chips Ahoy, History Edition
Chips ahoy
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posted its longest winning streak in its entire 32-year history — 17 consecutive up days. The dot-com boom peaked at 14 days. This one went further.
Source: Bloomberg
SOXX Up 40% in April. The Average? -1.6%.
SOXX is up +40.20% in April 2026 — the best April in the fund's 10-year history by an enormous margin. The average April return for SOXX is -1.60%. That is not a rounding error.
Source: Bloomberg
AI Leaders Doubled. Nobody Blinked.
Goldman Sachs AI Leaders basket is up +101% over the past year — while the broad S&P 500 is up roughly 20%. If that differential ever closes, in either direction, it's not a small event.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Small Caps Are Secretly AI Stocks
AI companies now make up 17% of the Russell 2000 — and excluding them, the ex-AI small cap index underperforms by nearly 10%. The small cap 'rally' is an AI rally wearing a different hat.
Source: Goldman Sachs
The Invisible Earnings Boom
Growing Faster Than the Dot-Com Era
EPS revision pace is now growing faster than both the mid-90s boom and the late dot-com years — and unlike those periods, this one isn't coming off an earnings drawdown. It's pure expansion from a healthy base.
Source: Warren Pies
Six Straight Double-Digit Quarters
Q1 2026 blended EPS growth is running at 15.1%, which would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth. Sales growth of 10.3% would be the strongest since Q3 2022.
Source: DataTrek Research
Firing Workers. Buying Stock.
Big tech companies are cutting headcount while running some of the most aggressive buyback programs in their histories. Meta is the starkest example — Q1 workforce reductions paired with a record buyback authorization. The cash is real; it's just going to shareholders, not payroll.
Source: JPMorgan
Vol's Nickel Defense
Calls Back to Oct 2025 Frenzy
Median daily call volumes across US exchanges are approaching peak October 2025 levels — the last time the market was in a full FOMO-fueled, call-buying frenzy just before a notable pullback.
Source: Bloomberg
Private Money Outguns Central Banks
For the first time, foreign private investors hold more US Treasuries than foreign central banks — a structural shift that makes the Treasury market increasingly sensitive to return-seeking private capital rather than policy mandates.
Source: Apollo
IRS Running 18% Ahead of Last Year
Cumulative 2026 tax refunds are tracking ~18% above 2025 pace — $330 billion versus $280 billion. That's a hidden consumer spending tailwind arriving just as Mag 7 earnings season kicks into high gear.
Source: Bloomberg
Hormuz Declared Open. Ships Disagree.
Washington Handed CapEx a Blank Check
The OBBA bill includes 100% bonus depreciation on equipment, R&D, and software effective immediately — a direct subsidy for AI infrastructure build-out at exactly the moment when hyperscaler spending is already at record pace.
Source: Bloomberg
Just Because...
The First Webcam Watched a Coffee Pot
The world's first webcam (1991) was pointed at a coffee pot in Cambridge University's computer lab so researchers could check from their desks whether it was worth walking to the kitchen. 130 million websites later, the internet's first live feed was about not wasting a trip for bad coffee.
