Volatility Pulse - One market did crash
VIX: 7th Biggest Crash Ever
The VIX fell 38% in 2 weeks — the 7th largest volatility crash in recorded history. Six of the other six times were market bottoms. The question is whether this one is a confirmation or a setup for the next spike.
Source: Charlie Bilello
QQQ Call: 5,600% in Three Days
A QQQ Apr 17 $640 call went from pennies to a 5,600% gain in 3 trading sessions — one of the most explosive single-contract moves of the year.
Source: Bloomberg
Call Flows Still Muted Near ATH
Net call volume has recovered off its lows but remains subdued vs. pre-war levels — even as the S&P 500 claws back to within scratching distance of all-time highs. The index is back. The flow conviction isn't.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Everybody's Bearish, Nobody Left to Sell
Fund Managers aren't having it
The BofA Fund Manager Survey is at its most bearish reading since June 2025 — while the S&P 500 just posted back-to-back +3% weeks. Sentiment and price are telling completely different stories. One of them will be wrong by May.
Source: BofA
ETF Shorts Down 11.5% — Decade Record
US-listed ETF shorts fell 11.5% last week — the largest single-week short covering percentage in the past decade, per Goldman.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Small Caps Day in the Sun
Small caps are routing everyone: IWM is up 9.44% YTD, ahead of RSP (+6%), QQQ (+3.8%), and SPY (+3.2%). The rotation is real, broad, and largely invisible to most large-cap focused investors.
Source: Bloomberg
Gold Lost Its Divorce Papers
Small Tech Routing Big Tech
Small cap tech is outperforming large cap tech structurally — DataTrek notes this reflects 'ongoing concerns about when Big Tech's AI investments will start paying off.' The expectations gap between Mag 7 capex commitments and actual AI revenue is widening.
Source: DataTrek Research
Analysts Haven't Gotten the War Memo
AI Owns 40% of 2026 EPS Growth
Goldman estimates AI infrastructure will drive roughly 40% of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026, with another 4% from AI cloud services. That's a $500 billion capex bet by just three companies — and a single-point-of-failure in the index's entire growth story.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Back-to-Back +3% Weeks — Ask History
The S&P 500 just posted back-to-back weekly gains above 3% for the first time since 2022. Historically this resolves higher: up 12 out of 14 times over the following year, with only the early 2000s tech bust as the exception.
Source: Carson Group
Gold Lost Its Divorce Papers
Gold: High-Beta Now, Hedge Never
Gold is recovering because Iran and the US are negotiating — which means gold now moves WITH risk assets, not against them. The chart of gold's correlation to SPX has flipped positive. Every safe-haven argument just got more complicated.
Source: Bloomberg
Just Because...
The Sahara Called — It Wants Its Hippos Back
10,000 years ago, the Sahara Desert was a lush green savanna with rivers, lakes, hippopotamuses, and crocodiles. The African Humid Period ended gradually as Earth's axial tilt shifted, drying the region over 5,000 years. Cave paintings in Algeria still show giraffes and swimming humans. Sand where hippos once roamed.
