Volatility Pulse — Best of Times...Worst of Times

Vinay Tolia |

Off the Charts Shorts

Notional short selling across single stocks hit the highest level on record in Goldman data going back to 2016.

Record short selling chart


Source: @MacroCharts 


Return to Reasonable?

Forward P/E for Software and IT is at the lowest its been in almost a decade.

Software forward P/E chart 
Source: ZeroHedge 


Retail Buying Software Hand Over Fist

Rolling 1-month retail inflows to IGV software ETF surged to a record $176mn—most aggressive in years.

Retail software ETF inflows chart 
Source: ZeroHedge 


Tides Have Turned

US is still 63% of global market cap, but the relative trade is flipping—dollar weakness providing mechanical tailwind to foreign returns.

US vs world market cap chart 
Source: @WillieDelwiche 


Revenge of the World

Non-US equities posting one of their best starts to a year in four decades—MSCI World ex-USA up 11 weeks in a row.

MSCI World ex-USA performance chart 
Source: @NautilusCap 


Even Small Caps Are Finally Joining

We're barely started the year but the RTY outperformance over NDX is quite something.

RTY vs NDX performance chart 
Source: TradingView 


Pain for Low Income Bucket

Consumer delinquency rates hit 4.8% in Q4—highest since 2017—driven by low-income and young borrowers cracking.

Consumer delinquency rates chart 
Source: Bloomberg 


Boats and Planes for the Upper End

Air travel and cruise line stocks have ripped the past couple months. Higher end consumers are still spending big.

Leisure spending chart 
Source: Bloomberg 


Small Biz Aren't Building Data Centers

Capex for small business is among the lowest in 15 years. Someone get these companies Blackwell chips stat.

Small business capex chart 
Source: @RenMacLLC 


Buybacks or AI Build Out?

Mag 7 buybacks and dividends at lowest since tech bubble as capex devours free cash flow. What used to be dollars for share buybacks has been shipped right to NVDA.

Mag 7 buybacks vs capex chart 
Source: @_JoshSchafer 


Paused on Tech Buying

Sector funds ex-Tech saw record $62bn inflows in first 5 weeks—more than all of 2025 combined—while Tech flows stall.

Sector fund flows chart 
Source: @neilksethi 


Making Up for Tech's Losses

The rout in tech has been made up for by the rest of the S&P picking up the slack.

S&P divergent paths chart 
Source: Duality Research 


AI Gains but for Tech Only?

Consensus estimates see AI profits in tech but nowhere else....

AI earnings impact chart 
Source: Apollo Academy 


Just Because...

The immortal jellyfish—Turritopsis dohrnii can revert to its juvenile polyp state after reaching maturity, effectively making it biologically immortal. Scientists have watched individual specimens cycle through this process multiple times. Maybe it should run for political office in the US.

Immortal jellyfish 
Source: American Museum of Natural History 


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