Volatility Pulse - Still Waters Run Deep

Vinay Tolia |

Chaos Underneath a Flat Index

S&P 500 flat since Jan 15 but the average stock has moved 10.8% in absolute terms—Nomura says this level of dispersion has only shown up around serious macro shocks in 2000 and 2008.

S&P 500 dispersion chart


Source: @JPokoTrades 


Highs AND Lows: Never Seen Before

20% of S&P 500 stocks at 52-week highs while 6%+ at 52-week lows simultaneously—this split has literally never happened before.

52-week highs and lows chart 
Source: @TheMarketStats 


The New AI Trade

Why buy NVDA when you can purchase energy and materials layer below that?

AI resource layer trade chart 
Source: @johnarnold 


Most Shorted, Most Loved

Energy sector short interest near highest in over a decade—yet XLE just broke out to 7 straight weeks of outperformance vs SPX with a 25% performance differential.

Energy sector breakout chart 
Source: @SubuTrade 


Shorts Pile On Tech — Squeeze Set Up?

Tech sector short interest at highest level of this decade—short-tech and software is now the most crowded trade on the street.

Tech sector short interest chart 
Source: @SubuTrade 


Capex Is for the Birds

Capex for AI has been THE story of the last 2 years. Apple however has completely opted out of this buildout cycle.

Apple capex chart 
Source: @rohanpaul_ai 


But What If They Miss the Boat?

Over the course of time high investment companies (heavily capital intensive) have not worked out well. We're not saying that tech companies will suddenly be in that bucket—but the track record is worth noting.

Capex vs returns chart 
Source: X/Twitter 


Follow the Money

Record smashing inflows for Emerging market funds.

Emerging market capital flows chart 
Source: @Mayhem4Markets 


No Wonder the Money Is Flowing

SPY is up almost 20% since 2025. The rest of the world has been crushing the US since in that time period.

World returns vs US chart 
Source: @awealthofcs 


Just How Pervasive Is the Outperformance?

You have to go to the 10th-largest ex-US country in the ACWI ETF to find a place that's lagging the US in 2026.

ACWI country performance chart 
Source: @LJKawa 


NASDAQ Protection Buying

Skew is the measurement between volatility of calls and puts. The higher this ratio the higher the demand for downside protection. We're currently near 4 year highs with the market only a couple of percent off its record highs.

NASDAQ skew chart 
Source: Goldman Sachs Research 


The Only Thing the Market Agrees On

Gold hit all-time high of $5,595 in January—yet China's PBOC extended buying to 14 consecutive months and JPMorgan targets $6,300 by year-end.

Gold inflows chart 
Source: @RoukayaIbrahim 


Toilet Paper Hoarding

On a rolling 5-week basis, the Consumer Staples sector is up by 17%. Going back to 1990, we have only seen stronger 5-week runs in: April 2020, April 2000, November 1998, February 1991.

Consumer Staples run chart 
Source: Apollo Academy 


Just Because...

The Great Pyramid was built around 2560 BC. Cleopatra lived around 30 BC. The moon landing was 1969 AD. Cleopatra is closer to us ordering pizza on our phones than to the construction of the pyramids she's associated with.

Cleopatra timeline 
Source: Quora