Volatility Pulse - Higher for Longer

Vinay Tolia |

The Long Bond Cracks 5%

The US 30-year Treasury yield is back above 5% (5.08%) — a level it hasn't sustained since 2007. In just a few years, America's long-term borrowing cost has round-tripped two full decades.

The Long Bond Cracks 5%

Source: U.S. Treasury


Uncle Sam Pays Up

The Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at 4.58% — the highest yield since February 2025. Buyers still showed up, but they're demanding to be paid a lot more to fund the government.

Uncle Sam Pays Up

Source: U.S. Treasury


Japan's 30-Year Wake-Up

Japan's 10-year yield hit 2.87% — its highest since 1996 — as investors finally start pricing the risk in a country with a $2.3 trillion spending plan and the developed world's biggest debt load.

Japan's 30-Year Wake-Up

Source: Bloomberg


Betting Against the Yen, 2007-Style

Hedge funds are now the most bearish on the Japanese yen since 2007 — leaning into the very same trade that unwound violently the last time a crisis hit.

Betting Against the Yen, 2007-Style

Source: CFTC


Too Big to Fathom

Amazon's $100 Billion Binge

Amazon has borrowed more than $100 billion this year alone — some of it maturing in 40 and 50 years — making it the biggest debt issuer among the tech giants. Even Amazon is buying now, paying later.

Amazon's $100 Billion Binge

Source: Bloomberg


Money Isn't What It Was

Your $100 Is Shrinking

In the world's high-inflation economies, $100 can lose more than a quarter of its purchasing power in a single year — and US housing keeps making a dollar buy less everywhere.

Your $100 Is Shrinking

Source: Visual Capitalist


Too Big to Fathom

Blue Origin joins the fun

Jeff Bezos's rocket company is raising $10 billion at a $140 billion valuation — its first-ever outside capital after years funded entirely by Bezos himself. The space race now has a price tag.

Blue Origin joins the fun

Source: Bloomberg


The Casino Floor

Space investing - not for the faint of heart

One investor is up more than 20x on Rocket Lab after buying under $4 three years ago — but the ride included four separate drops of 40% or more. The payout was real; so was the whiplash.

Space investing - not for the faint of heart

Source: Rocket Lab


Money Isn't What It Was

Intel Beats Its Dot-Com Self

Intel is trading further above its long-term trend line than at any point in its history — even more stretched than at the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble. The old-guard chipmaker is having a moment.

Intel Beats Its Dot-Com Self

Source: Barchart


PayPal's Lost Half-Decade

$10,000 put into PayPal exactly five years ago is worth about $1,541 today — an 85% haircut on what was once a fintech darling, while the S&P nearly doubled.

PayPal's Lost Half-Decade

Source: Barchart


The Casino Floor

The 3x Fund That Halved

The triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL) has lost half its value since mid-June, shedding about $10 billion in assets — a brutal reminder of what 'leveraged' means when the trade turns.

The 3x Fund That Halved

Source: Bloomberg


Just Because...

Your 3-Pound Brain Burns 20% of Your Calories

Your brain is about 2% of your body weight but demands 20% of your total calories — ape brains need only ~8%. Neurons are extraordinary energy hogs, which is why genuine focus is physically exhausting and skipping breakfast measurably dents memory and problem-solving.

Your 3-Pound Brain Burns 20% of Your Calories

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