Volatility Pulse - Earned, not given
Good luck beating the index
Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the index over the last three years. On a chart back to 1991, the only stretches that were worse were the late 1990s and early 2025.
Source: JPMorgan via @ConnorJBates_
Ten stocks, 70% of the rally
Since March 30 the S&P 500 is up 23%, and ten names drove 70% of that. Nvidia alone delivered 13%. The other 490 stocks combined: 30%.
Source: Nomura
At least they're pulling their weight
Ten companies are expected to deliver 68% of S&P 500 earnings growth this quarter, up from 48% last quarter. Micron and Nvidia alone account for 34 points of it.
Source: Goldman Sachs
This rally earned its stripes
The S&P 500 has returned 168% since the start of 2020. Higher valuations contributed just 5 points of that; earnings growth contributed 137 and dividends 26.
Source: Carson Group
Tech got cheaper on the way up
S&P 500 tech has returned roughly 125% since January 2024, and its price-to-earnings multiple actually shrank along the way. Earnings did all of the work, and then some.
Source: Michael Cembalest - JPMorgan
Healthcare insiders are still buying
Insider buying has cooled across most of the market, except in healthcare, where it remains elevated. In past signals like this, the healthcare sector ETF was higher a year later 97% of the time, with a median gain of 15%.
Source: Jay Kaeppel - SentimenTrader
Mortgage plus gas just hit a record
A gauge that adds the 30-year mortgage rate to the price of a gallon of gas just hit 11.79, above its October 2023 peak and well above July 2008. Its average since 2004 is 7.87.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Lower rates, anyone?
Call-option volume on the 20+ year Treasury ETF hit about 15 million contracts over the past month, the most on a chart back to 2006. Calls on the utilities ETF also hit a record. Traders appear to be betting rates fall.
Source: MarketWatch
Year five has been kind
Of the bull markets since 1950 that reached a fifth year, every one finished that year higher, with an average gain of 18.9%. Only one bull ended during its fifth year.
Source: Ryan Detrick - Carson Group
AI got cheaper, chips didn't
The price of using AI models has roughly halved since June, while the hourly rent on an Nvidia H100 chip has climbed back to about $2.70. Cheaper intelligence appears to mean more demand for the hardware.
Source: Citadel Securities via a16z
The Dow, priced in gold
It now takes about 12 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. At the 1999 peak it took 42; in 1980 it took 1.3.
Source: @ThierryBorgeat
Just Because...
Magellan Never Made It Around
Ferdinand Magellan gets credit for the first trip around the world, except he died halfway through, on a Philippine beach in 1521. His crew finished without him: of roughly 270 men who set out, 18 made it home three years later.
