Volatility Pulse - Boring is Beautiful
Calm Surface, Chaos Below
Single stocks are realizing ~25 vol points over the index — the highest spread on record — while the S&P 500 trades in one of its tightest two-month ranges in history.
Source: Connor Bates
$50 Billion Put Frenzy
Almost $50B in notional ETF put trading this month alone — significantly outpacing every other episode in the past two decades. The hedging panic is at a 20-year extreme.
Source: Macro Charts
Volatility Is a Myth
Everyone talks about wild markets but the YTD average VIX is just 17.5 and MOVE (bond market volatility) is 61.9 — both below the daily average for every full year from 2000 to 2025.
Source: LizAnn Sonders
Hindenburg Omen Is Flashing
The Hindenburg Omen — a cluster of new highs and new lows firing simultaneously — just triggered again. Historically it precedes 25%+ of major selloffs, but this time the signal is hiding inside the calmest VIX regime in years.
Source: Jason Goepfert
Midterm Year Chop Is Clockwork
Midterm election year seasonality shows the chop zone we're in right now is textbook — historically, the first half grinds sideways before a second-half breakout. The 'boring' vol regime is the pattern, not the anomaly.
Source: Jeff Hirsch
AI's Reckoning
Tech Isn't Software Anymore
QQQ-to-IGV 6-month correlation just hit its lowest level since at least 2001 — AI has completely broken the decades-old assumption that 'tech equals software.'
Source: Bluekurtic
AI Swallowed Half the S&P
Since ChatGPT launched in Nov 2022, 'AI companies' grew from ~25% to ~45% of the S&P 500's total weight — nearly half the index now rides on a single theme.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Retail vs Hedgies: Software Showdown
Retail option activity on IGV is running at nearly 15x last year's daily average while hedge funds short software at record levels — Mom-and-pop and Wall Street have never disagreed more. Roaring Kitty 2.0?
Source: Blake Millard
The Great Rotation
Desert Storm Déjà Vu
Staples + Energy up >10% while Financials + Tech are negative over the past 63 trading days — a combo that has only happened twice before: 1990 and 2000.
Source: Warren Pies
Worst Cap-Weight Run Since 2001
The past 3 months have been the worst period to own SPX relative to equal-weight since 2001 — mega-caps are dragging the index while the average stock quietly outperforms.
Source: T1 Alpha
Retail Dumping Everything But AI
Retail investors turned net sellers of the non-AI SPX 470 stocks to fund massive Mag 7 purchases — Main Street is all-in on AI and abandoning the rest of the market.
Source: JPMorgan
Expensive on 18 of 20 Metrics
The S&P 500 is more expensive than its historical average on 18 of 20 valuation metrics BofA tracks — leaving almost no angle from which it looks cheap.
Source: BofA
Cracks & Commodities
Too small to fail
Large-cap financials just hit their lowest level relative to SPX in 5+ years while small-cap financials simultaneously hit new multi-year highs — a historic divergence within the same sector.
Source: El Clutch
Dollar Debasement Signal
The USD just made a new post-election low against EM currencies — except for the April '25 tariff spike, the dollar has been falling in a straight line against EM, the best leading indicator for broader dollar direction.
Source: Robin Brooks
The Squeeze Signal
VIX Reversal: 100% Win Rate
After VIX spent 30 days above its 20-DMA then dropped below, SPX was higher 100% of the time one year later with an average gain of +20.4% — a signal that's historically only fired after corrections.
Source: Subu Trade
Tightest Squeeze Since 2017
S&P 500 Bollinger Band width at its tightest since 2017 — historically this compression led to upside 90% of the time over 9 months with max drawdowns under 15% in 18 of 19 cases.
Source: Bluekurtic
Choppy Markets = Buy Signal
The S&P 500 has crossed its 50-day moving average 10 times in the past 50 days — but in prior indecisive markets like this, SPX was higher 12 out of 14 times two months later.
Source: The Market Stats
Housing: Rates Down, Hopes Flat
Mortgage rates fell 60bps since January but housing affordability is barely improving — home prices keep climbing faster than rates fall, trapping buyers in the worst affordability squeeze since the early 1980s.
Source: Piper Sandler
Just Because...
Pokemon Turns 30 — Move over Luke Skywalker
On this exact day in 1996, two pixelated Game Boy cartridges launched in Japan and accidentally created the highest-grossing media franchise in human history. Pokemon has now generated over $150 billion — more than Star Wars, Marvel, Mickey Mouse, and Harry Potter combined. A yellow electric rat outearns the Death Star.
— Vinay Tolia, Marine Layer Advisors
