Volatility Pulse - All eyes on Hormuz
The Oil Shock That Isn't (Yet)
Hormuz Traffic: Basically Zero
Despite headlines suggesting oil is still flowing, actual Strait of Hormuz traffic data shows transits are basically nonexistent — a massive disconnect between the narrative and reality.
Source: Bloomberg
Gas Prices: Biggest 2-Day Jump in 20 Years
National average gasoline surged 20 cents in just 2 days — the biggest jump in over two decades — and that was before Hormuz traffic went to zero.
Source: Bianco Research
China's 38% Hormuz Dependency
China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for 38% of its oil imports, followed by India (15%), South Korea (12%), and Japan (11%). Europe? Just 3%. This is Asia's crisis more than America's.
Source: Bloomberg
The Rotation Accelerates
International Beating US by 27%
International stocks have outperformed the US by 27% over the past 14 months — the biggest spread since 1993-94. The valuation premium that peaked at 68% has already collapsed to 41%.
Source: Charlie Bilello
The Great De-Grossing
Korea's 55% Rally Cracks 10%
EWY was up 55% through the first 2 months of 2026 vs just 14% for broad EM — then dropped 10% in a single day. Korean futures hit limit up on the recovery, gave it all back. Peak momentum unwind.
Source: Bloomberg
The Rotation Accelerates
Tech's Worst 50-Year Stretch
Tech stocks are posting one of the weakest periods of relative returns over the past 50 years. Not 5 years. Not 10 years. 50 years.
Source: Goldman Sachs
GS Sector Dispersion Explodes
Goldman Sachs notes the widest YTD sector dispersion in years — with energy +23%, healthcare +12%, and tech in the red. The index is flat; the stocks inside it are at war.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Vol's Identity Crisis
ODTE: $7 to $80 in One Session
The SPXW March 3 6800 put went from $7.00 to north of $80.00 intraday — a 10x+ move on a zero-day option as the market plunged on Iran headlines before reversing on Trump's tanker escort comments.
Source: Bloomberg
SPX 6700 Put Wall Forming
SPX fixed strike vol is firm with April 6700 puts seeing heavy downside rolling. A pin is starting to form at 6700 — if SPX drifts there, expect a gravity well effect from dealer hedging.
Source: Bloomberg
VIX Highest Monthly Since Tariff Crash
VIX closed at its highest monthly level since the April 2025 tariff crash — 2 straight months up. Since Covid, VIX has only done 3 straight green months once. Either this is the setup for real trouble, or a snap-back.
Source: @Mr_Derivatives
Safe Haven Roulette
VIX >27 Near ATH = Buy Signal
VIX spiked above 27 while the SPX was within 5% of its all-time high. That's happened 14 times since 2010 — and the SPX was higher 1 month later in 13 of those 14 instances.
Source: @TheMarketStats
Retail Dip-Buying at 4.3x Intensity
Citadel data shows retail net notional buying on February down days was 4.3x their buying on up days — more than double January's ratio of 2.1x. The buy-the-dip reflex has never been stronger.
Source: Citadel Securities
Just Because...
There's an Island Where Kids Must Learn a Whistling Language
On the Spanish island of La Gomera, children are legally required to learn 'Silbo Gomero' — a fully functional language made entirely of whistles that can carry conversations across 5 kilometers of mountain valleys. It has 22,000 fluent whistlers and UNESCO heritage status.
— Vinay Tolia, Marine Layer Advisors
