Volatility Pulse - All in
A rare kind of new high
Hi Mount Research counts just 26 instances in 55+ years where the S&P 500 posted new highs while new lows outnumbered new highs. Most clustered around 1998-2002.
Source: Willie Delwiche - Hi Mount Research
You call this a bubble?
Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity tracks the AI cycle against the 1998-2000 internet bubble in real time. As of October 11, the model says we have reached the 'climax of the 1998-2000 analog.' Current tech P/E: 20.7x. At the internet bubble's actual peak: 66.4x.
Source: Jurrien Timmer - Fidelity
AI is having a half-off sale
OpenAI slashed token prices 50% when the Chinese open-model wave hit, then delayed its IPO. Anthropic has now cut its prices 50% in the past month. Bloomberg's Anthropic/OpenAI Token Price Index is down 50-70% from its peaks.
Source: Bloomberg
That escalated quickly
CoreWeave sold bonds in June at 9.625%. Those bonds now trade at a 14.5% yield, just four months later. Interest expense is forecast at $860-940 million in Q3 2026, roughly 25% of revenue. The demand for its data centers is real. The cost of the capital funding them is growing.
Source: CoreWeave
The whole world is betting on American AI
Bloomberg reports foreign investors have roughly $4.9 trillion of their US equity holdings in AI companies, approximately the size of Germany's economy. The chart confirms sustained demand: rolling 12-month foreign net purchases of US equities run near $2 trillion a year.
Source: Bloomberg
Is it small caps' turn?
BTIG Research shows the RTY/NDX 14-day RSI at 12.78 as of October 7, the 8th lowest reading since 1985. Only three prior periods fell below 14: July 2007, August 2011, and March 2020. Each preceded significant small-cap recoveries.
Source: BTIG Research
Institutions are betting small
COT report data shows institutional positioning running a long in Russell 2000 futures near 80,000+ contracts while simultaneously running short on the Nasdaq 100 at roughly -12,000 contracts. A clear rotation signal in the data.
Source: i3 Invest
Smooth sailing
Bespoke Investment Group's streak counter: 552 consecutive calendar days without a drawdown exceeding 10%, following a 10%+ gain. One of the longest stretches of market calm in recent memory.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
So much for midterm year jitters
The S&P 500 has now gone 53 consecutive trading days without a single session falling more than 1%, the longest such streak in over six years. Markets were widely expected to be volatile in Q3 of this midterm year. They were not.
Source: Carson Group
Gold didn't get the memo
Gold is trading near $4,100 per ounce while the US 10-year yield pushes toward 5%, a level that has historically pressured the metal lower. The two appear to have decoupled. Gold is off its $5,400 February peak but appears to be holding its ground.
Source: John Authers - Bloomberg
Fat margins, skinny tax bill
100% expensing on data center investment has helped push US corporate income tax revenues from roughly $530 billion at their 2024 peak to around $365 billion in 2026, even as profit margins may be near record highs. The CBO projects only a partial recovery by 2027-2028.
Source: BCA Research
Just Because...
The Pacific Ocean Is Bigger Than All Land on Earth
The Pacific Ocean covers 165 million square kilometers. All the land on Earth combined: 149 million. One ocean, bigger than every continent put together. If you could drain the Atlantic, Indian, and Arctic oceans and pour all that extra water into the Pacific, there would still be room.
