Volatility Pulse - Data Center Drama

Americans would rather live by a nuclear plant than a data center

A year ago, 43% of Americans were open to a data center being built near their home. Now it is 15%, and the share strongly opposed has gone from 24% to 61%.

Source: Heatmap Pro / Embold Research

Data Centers Are Their Own Stimulus

In New Mexico and Wyoming, data centers account for roughly 60% of all private nonresidential construction spending. Texas has more gigawatts under construction than any state and that is still only about 14% of its building.

Source: Goldman Sachs via a16z

Rates Never Slowed it Down

Since the Fed started hiking in 2022, private office construction has fallen from about $70 billion a year to $45 billion. Data center construction went from $11 billion to $68 billion over the same stretch.

Source: Apollo Chief Economist

Uncle Sam's New Bankers

Domestic private investors now own 54% of the Treasury market, up from under 30% in 2014, while foreign official holders have fallen to about 14%. The government's biggest lender is no longer a government.

Source: Barclays via Lisa Abramowicz

Debt Doubled, Wealth skyrocketed too

Federal debt has roughly doubled since 2018, to $39.77 trillion. Household net worth over the same stretch went from about $100 trillion to $182.98 trillion, and only one of those two numbers gets the headlines.

Source: Carson Investment Research

Bitcoin Crossed Its Line

Bitcoin is back above its 200-day average after more than a year below it, only the third time since 2014 it has spent six straight months underwater. In the two prior cases it did not trade back under the signal price over the following 12 months.

Source: Bluekurtic Market Insights

Walmart's Slowest In Six Years

Walmart's US comparable sales grew 2.6% last quarter, the weakest in more than six years, and the shares fell over 9% on the day. Shoppers spent less per trip even as the company cut prices on about 11,000 items.

Source: Bloomberg

Yet...Most Optimistic Since 1983

The Philly Fed's six-months-ahead outlook just posted the biggest one-month jump in the survey's history and its highest reading since August 1983. The survey has run every month since 1968.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Teens Quit Summer

Just 35.5% of US 16-to-19-year-olds held a summer job this year, against more than half in 2000 and 56.5% back in 1948. The summer job appears to be going the way of the paper route.

Source: Pew Research Center

Four Percent, Sixty Three Percent

The United States makes up 63% of the MSCI All Country World Index, while Japan, China, the UK and France combined are 13%. A country with about 4% of the world's people carries most of the world's stock market.

Source: Goldman Sachs via ISABELNET

Buy At Close, Sell At Open

A dollar put into Micron and held only overnight since 1990 would be worth about $1.38 million. The same dollar held only during trading hours would be down 99.92%, worth less than a tenth of a cent.

Source: Bear Bull Traders

Sentiment Wears A Jersey

After the 2024 election the two parties' economic moods traded places almost overnight: Democrats slid from the low 90s toward 40 while Republicans jumped from about 50 to the high 80s. Same economy, different jersey, and even the survey's own director has suggested Independents may be the only clean read left.

Source: University of Michigan

Eighty Jumbo Jets

Starship's Super Heavy booster puts out roughly the same liftoff thrust as 80 Boeing 747s firing at once. That is 33 engines at about 280 metric tons of thrust each.

Source: XFreeze